Sargassum Tracker

USF OOL Long Term Outlook

Jan 06, 2024
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Since 2011, large amounts of Sargassum seaweed appeared in the Caribbean Sea every summer except 2013, creating many environmental, ecological and economic problems in many regions. The seaweed originated from the tropical Atlantic, and is believed to be a result of climate variability and other natural and unnatural processes. Based on satellite observations and statistics of historical events, in early February 2018 the Optical Oceanography Lab developed the first 1-page Sargassum outlook bulletin for the Caribbean Sea. Since then, the bulletins have been generated and distributed to subscribers by the last day of the month. These monthly bulletins are also made available at (https://optics.marine.usf.edu/projects/saws.html)

As predicted one month ago, total Sargassum amount in the tropical Atlantic (both western Atlantic and eastern Atlantic) continued to increase from December to January, and remained negligible or very low in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea. Increased amount was also found in the eastern Caribbean Sea but total amount still remained low (~ 0.1 million metric tons). The spatial distributions in the tropical Atlantic remained stable but total amount nearly doubled in a month, suggesting local growth. Compared to most previous years since 2011, Sargassum amount in the western Atlantic and eastern Atlantic all exceeded each region’s 75 percentile. More Sargassum entered the Caribbean Sea through the Lesser Antilles. .

SARGASSUM ABUNDANCE INTENSITY

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Looking ahead: As in most previous years, February is expected to see increased Sargassum from January. More Sargassum is expected to enter the Caribbean Sea through the Lesser Antilles. Sargassum in the western Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico will likely remain very low. However, the continuous and significant increases in total amounts of Sargassum in the tropical Atlantic reinforce our earlier prediction that 2025 is likely another major Sargassum year. We will closely monitor and track Sargassum throughout the central Atlantic, and will have better predictions on whether and when large amounts of Sargassum will reach Florida. Meanwhile, all previous monthly bulletins as well as daily updates through near real-time imagery can be found under the Sargassum Watch System (SaWS, https://optics.marine.usf.edu/projects/saws.html).

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Disclaimer

The information bulletin is meant to provide a general outlook of current bloom condition and future bloom probability for the Caribbean Sea. By no means should it be used for commercial purpose, or used for predicting bloom conditions for a specific location or beach. The authors of this bulletin, as well as Caricoos, USF and NASA, take no responsibility for improper use or interpretation of the bulletin. Any use of the image, data, or graph from this bulletin page in reports or publications should obtain permission from the USF OOL group.